Two conflicting concerns regarding population co-exist. The first concern is that by 2050 the population of virtually all countries in Europe, as well as in Japan, will have declined. Many countries have implemented pro-natal policies to address the consequences of these trends. The second concern is that on a finite planet with limited resources, sustaining the world’s population numbers does not seem possible without an environmental collapse.

Although fertility rates have declined everywhere in the developing world, the world’s population is estimated to continue growing through the rest of this century, reaching 11.2 billion by 2100. Those concerned about environmental degradation advocate for child taxation. These two conflicting concerns on population size bring the question of optimal population on a finite planet to the forefront of current issues.

This course explores models of economic growth that incorporate endogenous population. These models shed light on the joint dynamics of output and population, as well as on question of optimal population. The course explores the foundational models of Malthus and Barro-Becker; the demographic transition models of Galor-Weil and Kremer; Lucas’ perspective on growth and population since the Industrial Revolution; the more recent models of growth and population by Jones, among others; and the conceptual analysis of population optimality. A variety of data sets will be used to illustrate trends and inform the relevance of models.